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11 May 2021

Government hype that NDIS projected spending of $30 billion by 2024-25 represents a crisis is contradicted by their own scheme modelling.

Trying to justify privatising the NDIS through compulsory independent assessments Minister Linda Reynolds said: “It is a fact that today the costs of the NDIS are increasing far more significantly year on year than was ever expected.”

In 2017, the Productivity Commission said the NDIS would cost up to $30B in 2024/5. In other words don’t believe the hype - the Scheme is on track with the Government’s own estimates which have been out since 2017.

The Government’s report –

  • Shows costs were always projected to grow above inflation and wage growth.
  • States the percentage contributed by the Commonwealth was also always expected to rise but that they should shoulder more of the weight over time because they have the better tax base than the states and territories.
  • Calls for a rigorous costs analysis to be undertaken which has never been done.

For days the senior ranks of the Morrison Government have been dramatically catastrophising about scheme sustainability and hyping fictional cost blowouts.

Now it turns out that has just been pearl-clutching kabuki theatre when they knew all along the NDIS is tracking just as predicted, and their hyped blow out that does not exist.

The Liberals knew this when they ripped $4.6 billion dollars out of the scheme calling it an underspend.

And they know it now as they hype fake blowouts to justify further cuts and privatisation through compulsory independent assessments.

It would be nice to have a budget where the Liberals did not treat the NDIS as its ATM or its whipping boy.

People with disability deserve better than rubbery figures, spooky music and silly parlour games from those at the helm of this vital national scheme.

Put the hype factory on hold Mr Morrison and Ms Reynolds and just be straight with the Australian public.