New data shows recent Government reforms to the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) has the world-first scheme on track to achieve an 8 per cent annual growth target by 1 July 2026, down from 23 per cent in the last year of the former Coalition government, Minister for the NDIS and Government Services the Hon. Bill Shorten MP said.

The National Disability Insurance Agency (NDIA) today released its 2023-24 Annual Financial Sustainability Report (AFSR), which, prepared by the Scheme Actuary and endorsed by the Agency board, projects Scheme expenditure in coming years.

The AFSR projections are on track to gradually meet the NDIS growth rate from 12 per cent in 2024-25 to 8.4 per cent in 2025-2026, and finally reaching the set 8 per cent growth target by 2026-27.

This reflects the successful implementation of the Government’s reforms to make the NDIS stronger and put participants back at the centre of the Scheme.

“The Government continues to deliver initiatives to improve the NDIS, and these results highlight that recent improvements – aimed better outcome for participants and slowing the growth of the NDIS to ensure a more sustainable future – are working,” Minister for the NDIS and Government Service the Hon. Bill Shorten MP said.

“Just two years ago, Scheme growth was 23 per cent per year, and it’s now headed to 12 per cent per year. This proves the changes we are implementing to make the NDIS stronger, are starting to take effect.

“We are getting better at managing plan growth through clarity around what NDIS funding can and cannot be used for and ensuring every NDIS dollar goes towards participant outcomes.

“I would like to thank the thousands of dedicated, hardworking NDIA staff who continue to put the more than 680,000 participants at the centre of what they do, while ensuring the Scheme is around for future generations to come,” Minister Shorten said. 

The AFSR also confirms projected Scheme expenses were expected to be $210.3 billion for the four years to June 2028 – $2.3 billion lower than previous AFSR predictions, and $1 billion lower than for the same four-year period in the 2024-25 Budget projections.

Recent reforms are expected to stabilise the growth in Scheme expenses by $19 billion over the next 4 years. While new legislation establishes a platform for much of this important work, the NDIA has been implementing other measures designed to strengthen the NDIS and provide a better experience for all participants and their families. This includes improvements to planning processes leading to more consistent decision making, proactively contacting participants who are at risk of plan exhaustion and continuing to progress payment integrity initiatives through the Crack Down on Fraud program.

The AFSR projections build on the positive trends in NDIS cost stabilisation including:

• Scheme expenses for the 12 months to 30 June considerably improved to be approximately $600 million less than the 2024-25 Budget estimate.
• A continued trend of stabilising plan inflation – with levels remaining lower than those observed since September 2022.
• Fewer participants at risk of overspending their plans.

"While the NDIS needs to better, these results show that we are improving the Scheme’s financial sustainability to not only deliver a fairer and more consistent Scheme for our 680,000 participants, but ensure the NDIS is here to stay in the future,” Minister Shorten said.